Tag: Climate

Part 1 of this series looks at the state of the climate emergency we’re in, and how we can still get our governments to do something about it. Part 2 looks at collapse scenarios we’re likely to face if we fail in those efforts, and part 3 is about concrete things we could work towards to make our software more resilient in those scenarios. In this final part we’re looking at obstacles and contradictions on the path to resilience.

Part 3 of this series was, in large parts, a pretty random list of ideas for how to make software resilient against various effects of collapse. Some of those ideas are potentially contradictory, so in this part I want to explore these contradictions, and hopefully start a discussion towards a realistic path forward in these areas.

Efficient vs. Repairable

The goals of wanting software to be frugal with resources but also easy to repair are often hard to square. Efficiency is generally achieved by using lower-level technology and having developers do more work to optimize resource use. However, for repairability you want something high-level with short feedback loops and introspection, i.e. the opposite.

An app written and distributed as a single Python file with no external dependencies is probably as good as it gets in terms of repairability, but there are serious limitations to what you can do with such an app and the stack is not known for being resource-efficient. The same applies to other types of accessible programming environments, such as scripts or spreadsheets. When it comes to data, plain text is very flexible and easy to work with (i.e. good for repairability), but it’s less efficient than binary data formats, can’t be queried as easily as a database, etc.

My feeling is that in many cases it’s a matter of choosing the right tradeoffs for a given situation, and knowing which side of the spectrum is more important. However, there are definitely examples where this is not a tradeoff: Electron is both inefficient and not very repairable due to its complexity.

What I’m more interested in is how we could bring both sides of the spectrum closer together: Can we make the repair experience for a Rust app feel more like a single-file Python script? Can we store data as plain text files, but still have the flexibility to arbitrarily query them like a database?

As with all degrowth discussions, there’s also the question whether reducing the scope of what we’re trying to achieve could make it much easier to square both goals. Similar to how we can’t keep using energy at the current rate and just swap fossil fuels out for renewables, we might have to cut some features in the interest of making things both performant and repairable. This is of course easier said than done, especially for well-established software where you can’t easily remove things, but I think it’s important to keep this perspective in mind.

File System vs. Collaboration

If you want to store data in files while also doing local-first sync and collaboration, you have a choice to make: You can either have a global sync system (per-app or system wide), or a per-file one.

Global sync: Files can use standard formats because history, permissions for collaboration, etc. are managed globally for all files. This has the advantage that files can be opened with any editor, but the downside is that copying them elsewhere means losing this metadata, so you can no longer collaborate on the file. This is basically what file sync services à la Nextcloud do (though I’m not sure to what degree these support real-time collaboration).

Per-file sync: The alternative is having a custom file format that includes all the metadata for history, sync, and collaboration in addition to the content of the file. The advantage of this model is that it’s more flexible for moving files around, backing them up, etc. because they are self-contained. The downside is that you lose access to the existing ecosystem of editors for the file type. In some cases that may be fine because it’s a novel type of content anyway, but it’s still not great because you want to ensure there are lots of apps that can read your content, across all platforms. The Fullscreen whiteboard app is an example of this model.

Of course ideally what you’d want is a combination of both: Metadata embedded in each file, but done in such a way that at least the latest version of the content can still be opened with any generic editor. No idea how feasible that’d be in general, but for text-based formats I could imagine this being a possibility, perhaps using some kind of front-matter with a bunch of binary data?

More generally, there’s a real question where this kind of real-time collaboration is needed in the first place. For which use cases is the the ability to collaborate in real time worth the added complexity (and hence reduced repairability)? Perhaps in many cases simple file sync is enough? Maybe the cases where collaboration is needed are rare enough that it doesn’t make sense to invest in the tech to begin with?

Bandwidth vs. Storage

In thinking about building software for a world with limited connectivity, it’s generally good to cache as much as possible on disk and hit the network as little as possible. But of course that also means using more disk space, which can itself become a resource problem, especially in the case of older computers or mobile devices. This would be accelerated if you had local-first versions of all kinds of data-heavy apps that currently only work with a network connection (e.g. having your entire photo and music libraries stored locally on disk).

One potential approach could be to also design for situations with limited storage. For example, could we prioritize different kinds of offline content in case something has to be deleted/offloaded? Could we offload large, but rarely used content or apps to external drives?

For example, I could imagine moving extra Flatpak SDKs you only need for development to a separate drive, which you only plug in when coding. Gaming could be another example: Your games would be grayed-out in the app grid unless you plug in the hard drive they’re on.

Having properly designed and supported workflows and failure states for low-storage cases like these could go a long way here.

Why GNOME?

Perhaps you’re wondering why I’m writing about this topic in the context of free software, and GNOME in particular. Beyond the personal need to contextualize my own work in the reality of the climate crisis, I think there are two important reasons: First, free software may have an important role to play in keeping computers useful in coming crisis scenarios, so we should make sure it’s good at filling that role. GNOME’s position in the GNU/Linux space and our close relationships and personnel overlap with projects up and down the stack make it a good forum to discuss these questions and experiment with solutions.

But secondly, and perhaps more importantly, I think this community has the right kinds of people for the problems at hand. There aren’t very many places where low-level engineering and principled UX design are done together at this scale, in the commons.

Some resilience-focused projects are built on the very un-resilient web stack because that’s what the authors know. Others have a tiny community of volunteer developers, making it difficult to build something that has impact beyond isolated experiments. Conversely, GNOME has a large community of people with expertise all across the stack, making it an interesting place to potentially put some of these ideas into practice.

People to Learn From?

While it’s still quite rare in tech circles overall, there are some other people thinking about computing from a climate collapse point of view, and/or working on adjacent problems. While most of this work is not directly relevant to GNOME in terms of technology, I find some of the ideas and perspectives very valuable, and maybe you do as well. I definitely recommend following some of these people and projects on Mastodon :)

Permacomputing is a philosophy trying to apply permaculture-like principles to computing. The term was coined by Ville-Matias “Viznut” Heikkilä in a 2020 essay. Permaculture aims to establish natural systems that can work sustainably in the long term, and the goal with permacomputing is to do something similar for computing, by rethinking its relationship to resource and energy use, and the kinds of things we use it for. As further reading, I recommend this interview with Heikkilä and Marloes de Valk.

100 Rabbits is a two-person art collective living on a sailboat and experimenting with ideas around resilience, wherein their boat studio setup is a kind of test case for the kinds of resource constraints collapse might bring. One of their projects is uxn, a tiny, portable emulator, which serves as a super-constrained platform to build apps and games for in a custom Assembly language. I think their projects are especially interesting because they show that you don’t need fancy hardware to build fun, attractive things – what’s far more important is the creativity of the people doing it.

Collapse OS is an operating system written in Forth by Virgil Dupras for a further-away future, where industrial society has not only collapsed, but when people stop having access to any working modern computers. For that kind of scenario it aims to provide a simple OS that can run on micro-controllers that are easy to find in all kinds of electronics, in order to build or repair custom electronics and simple computers.

Low Tech is an approach to technology that tries to keep things simple and resilient, often by re-discovering older technologies and recombining them in new ways. An interesting example of this philosophy in both form and content is Low Tech Magazine (founded in 2007 by Kris De Decker). Their website uses a dithered aesthetic for images that allows them to be just a few Kilobytes each, and their server is solar-powered, so it can go down when there’s not enough sunlight.

Ink & Switch is a research lab exploring ambitious high-level ideas in computing, some of which are very relevant to resilience and autonomy, such as local-first software, p2p collaboration, and new approaches to digital identity.

p2panda is a protocol for building local-first apps. It aims to make it easy enough to build p2p applications that developers can spend their time thinking about interesting user experiences rather than focus on the basics of making p2p work. It comes with reference implementations in Rust and Typescript.

Earthstar is a local-first sync system developed by Sam Gwilym with the specific goal to be “like a bicycle“, i.e. simple, reliable, and easy enough to understand top-to-bottom to be repairable.

Funding Sources

Unfortunately, as with all the most important work, it’s hard to get funding for projects in this area. It’ll take tons of work by very skilled people to make serious progress on things like power profiling, local-first sync, or mainlining Android phones. And of course, the direction is one where we’re not only not enabling new opportunities for commerce, but rather eliminating them. The goal is to replace subscription cloud services with (free) local-first ones, and make software so efficient that there’s no need to buy new hardware. Not an easy sell to investors :)

However, while it’s difficult to find funding for this work it’s not impossible either. There are a number of public grant programs that fund projects like these regularly, and where resilience projects around GNOME would fit in well.

If you’re based in the the European Union, there are a number of EU funds under the umbrella of the Next Generation Internet initiative. Many of them are managed by dutch nonprofit NLNet, and have funded a number of different projects with a focus on peer-to-peer technology, and other relevant topics. NLNet has also funded other GNOME-adjacent projects in the past, most recently Julian’s work on the Fractal Matrix client.

If you’re based in Germany, the German Ministry of Education’s Prototype Fund is another great option. They provide 6 month grants to individuals or small teams working on free software in a variety of areas including privacy, social impact, peer-to-peer, and others. They’ve also funded GNOME projects before, most recently the GNOME Shell mobile port.

The Sovereign Tech Fund is a new grant program by the German Ministry of Economic Affairs, which will fund work on software infrasctucture starting in 2023. The focus on lower-level infrastructure means that user-facing projects would probably not be a good fit, but I could imagine, for example, low-level work for local-first technology being relevant.

These are some grant programs I’m personally familiar with, but there are definitely others (don’t hesitate to reach out if you know some, I’d be happy to add them here). If you need help with grant applications for projects making GNOME more resilient don’t hesitate to reach out, I’d be happy to help :)

What’s Next?

One of my hopes with this series was to open a space for a community-wide discussion on topics like degrowth and resilience, as applied to our development practice. While this has happened to some degree, especially at in-person gatherings, it hasn’t been reflected in our online discourse and actual day-to-day work as much as I’d hoped. Finding better ways to do that is definitely something I want to explore in 2023.

On the more practical side, we’ve had sporadic discussions about various resilience-related initiatives, but nothing too concrete yet. As a next step I’ve opened a Gitlab issue for discussion around practical ideas and initiatives. To accelerate and focus this work I’d like to do a hackfest with this specific focus sometime soon, so stay tuned! If you’d be interested in attending, let me know :)

Closing Thoughts

It feels surreal to be writing this. There’s something profoundly weird about discussing climate collapse… on my GNOME development blog. Believe me, I’d much rather be writing about fancy animations and porting apps to phones. But such are the times. The climate crisis affects, or will affect, every aspect of our lives. It’d be more surreal not to think about how it will affect my work, to ignore or compartmentalize it as a separate thing.

As I write this in late 2022, we’ve just had one of the the hottest years on record, with an unprecedented number of catastrophes across the globe. At the same time, we’ve also seen the complete inability of the current political and economic system to enact meaningful policies to actually reduce emissions. This is especially dire in the context of the new IPCC report released earlier in the year, which says that global emissions need to peak before 2025 at the latest. But instead of getting starting on the massive transition this will require, governments are building new fossil infrastructure with public money, further fueling the crisis.

But no matter how bad things get, there’s always hope in action. Whether you glue yourself to the road to force the government to enact emergency measures, directly stop emissions by blocking the expansion of coal mines, seize the discourse with symbolic actions in public places, or disincentivize luxury emissions by deflating SUV tires, there’s a wing of this movement for everyone. It’s not too late to avoid the worst outcomes – If you, too, come and join the fight.

See you in action o/

This is a lightly edited version of my GUADEC 2022 talk, given at c-base in Berlin on July 21, 2022. Part 1 briefly summarizes the horrors we’re likely to face as a result of the climate crisis, and why civil resistance is our best bet to still avoid some of the worst-case scenarios. Trigger Warning: Very depressing facts about climate and societal collapse.

While I think it’s critical to use the next few years to try and avert the worst effects of this crisis, I believe we also need to think ahead and consider potential failure scenarios.

What would it mean if we fail to force our governments to enact the necessary drastic climate action, both for society at large but also very concretely for us as free software developers? In other words: What does collapse mean for GNOME?

In researching the subject I discovered that there’s actually a discipline studying questions like this, called “Collapsology”.

Collapsology studies the ways in which our current global industrial civilization is fragile and how it could collapse. It looks at these systemic risks in a transdisciplinary way, including ecology, economics, politics, sociology, etc. because all of these aspects of our society are interconnected in complex ways. I’m far from an expert on this topic, so I’m leaning heavily on the literature here, primarily Pablo Servigne and Raphaël Stevens’ book “How Everything Can Collapse” (translated from the french original).

So what does climate collapse actually look like? What resources, infrastructure, and organizations are most likely to become inaccessible, degrade, or collapse? In a nutshell: Complex, centralized, interdependent systems.

There are systems like that in every part of our lives of course, from agriculture, to pharma, to energy production, and of course electronics. Because this talk’s focus is specifically the impact on free software, I’ll dig deeper on a few areas that affect computing most directly: Supply chains, the power grid, the internet, and Big Tech.

Supply Chains

As we’ve seen repeatedly over the past few years, the supply chains that produce and transport goods across the globe are incredibly fragile. During the first COVID lockdowns it was toilet paper, then we got the chip shortage affecting everything from Play Stations to cars, and more recently a baby formula shortage in the US, among others. To make matters worse, many industries have moved to just-in-time manufacturing over the past decades, making them even less resilient.

Now add to that more and more extreme natural disasters disrupting production and transport, wars and sanctions disrupting trade, and financial crises triggered or exacerbated by some of the above. It’s not hard to imagine goods that are highly dependent on global supply chains becoming prohibitively expensive or just impossible to get in parts of the world.

Computers are one of the most complex things manufactured today, and therefore especially vulnerable to supply chain disruption. Without a global system of resource extraction, manufacturing, and trade there’s no way we can produce chips anywhere near the current level of sophistication. On top of that chip supply chains are incredibly centralized, with most of global chip production being controlled by a single Taiwanese company, and the machines used for that production controlled by a single Dutch company.

Power Grid

Access to an unlimited amount of power, at any time, for very little money, is something we take for granted, but probably shouldn’t. In addition to disruptions by extreme weather events one important factor here is that in an ever-hotter world, air conditioning starts to put an increasing amount of strain on the power grid. In parts of the global south this is one of the reasons why power outages are a daily occurrence, and having power all the time is far from guaranteed.

In order to do computing we of course need power, not only to run/charge our own devices, but also for the data centers and networking infrastructure running a lot of the things we’re connecting to while using those devices.

Which brings us to our next point…

Internet

Having a reliable internet connection requires a huge amount of interconnected infrastructure, from undersea cables, to data centers, to the local cable infrastructure that goes to your neighborhood, and ultimately your router or a nearby cellular tower.

All of this infrastructure is at risk of being disrupted by sea level rise and extreme weather, taken over by political actors wanting to control the flow of information, abandoned by companies when it becomes unprofitable to operate in a certain area due to frequent extreme weather, and so on.

Big Tech

Finally, at the top of the stack there’s the actual applications and services we use. These, too, have become ever more centralized and fragile at all levels over the past decades.

At the most basic level there’s OS updates and app stores. There are billions of iOS devices out there that are literally unable to get security updates or install new software if they lose access to Apple’s servers. Apple collapsing seems unlikely in the short term, but, for example, what if they stop doing business in your country because of sanctions?

We used to warn about lock-in to proprietary software and formats, but at least Photoshop CS2 continues to run on your computer regardless of what happens to the company. With Figma et al you can not only not access your existing files anymore if the server isn’t accessible, you can’t even create new ones.

In order to get a few nice sharing and collaboration features people are increasingly just running all software in the cloud on someone else’s computer, whether it’s Google Slides for presentations, SketchUp for 3D modeling, Notion for note taking, Figma for design, and even games via game streaming services like Stadia.

From a free software perspective another particularly risky point of corporate centralization is Github, given that a huge number of important projects are hosted there. Even if you’re not actively using it yourself for development, you’re almost certainly depending on other projects hosted on Github. If something were to happen to it… yikes.

Failure Scenarios

So to summarize, this is a rough outline of a potential failure scenario, as applied to computing:

• No new hardware: It’s difficult and expensive to get new devices because there’s little to no new ones being made, or they’re not being sold where you live.
• Limited power: There’s power some of the time, but only a few hours a day or when there’s enough sun for your solar panels. It’s likely that you’ll want to use it for more important things than powering computers though…
• Limited connectivity: There’s still a kind of global internet, but not all countries have access to it due to both degraded infrastructure and geopolitical reasons. You’re able to access a slow connection a few times a month, when you’re in another town nearby.
• No cloud: Apple and Google still exist, but because you don’t have internet access often enough or at sufficient speeds, you can’t install new apps on your iOS/Android devices. The apps you do have on them are largely useless since they assume you always have internet.

This may sound like an unrealistically dystopian scenario, until you realize: Parts of the global south are experiencing this today. Of course a collapse of these systems at the global level would have a lot of other terrible consequences, but I think seeing the global south as a kind of preview of where everyone else is headed is a helpful reference point.

A Smaller World

The future is of course impossible to predict, but in all likelihood we’re headed for a world where everything is a lot more local, one way or the other. Whether by choice (to reduce emissions and be more resilient), or through a full-on collapse, our way of life is going to change drastically over the next decades.

The future we’re looking at is likely to be a lot more disconnected in terms of the movement of goods, people, as well as information. This will necessitate producing things locally, with whatever resources are available locally. Given the complexity of most supply chains, this means many things we build today probably won’t be produced at all anymore, so there will need to be a lot more repair, and a lot less consumption.

Above all though, this will necessitate much stronger communities at the local level, working together to keep things running and make life liveable in the face of the catastrophes to come.

To be Clear: Fuck Nazis

When discussing apocalyptic scenarios like these I think a lot of people’s first point of reference is the Hollywood version of collapse – People out for themselves, fighting for survival as rugged individuals. There are certain types of people attracted by that who hold other reprehensible views, so when discussing topics like preparing for collapse it’s important to distance oneself from them.

That said, individual prepping is also not an effective strategy, because real life is not a Hollywood movie. In crisis scenarios mutual aid is just as natural a response for people as selfishness, and it’s a much better approach to actually survive longer-term. Resilient communities of people helping each other is our best bet to withstand whatever worst case scenarios might be headed our way.

We’ll Still Need Computers…

If this future comes to pass, how to do computing will be far from our biggest concern. Having enough food, drinkable water, and other necessities of life are likely to be higher on our priority list. However, there will definitely be important things that we will need computers for.

The thing to keep in mind here is that we’re not talking about the far future here: The buildings, roads, factories, fields, etc. we’ll be working with in this future are basically what we have today. The factories where we’re currently building BMWs are not going away overnight, even if no BMWs are being built. Neither are the billions of Intel laptops and mid-range Android phones currently in use, even if they’ll be slow and won’t get updates anymore.

So what might we need computers for in this hyper-local, resource-constrained future?

Information Management

At the most basic level, a lot of our information is stored primarily on computers today, and using computers is likely to remain the most efficient way to access it. This includes everything from teaching materials for schools, to tutorials for DIY repairs, books, scientific papers, and datasheets for electronics and other machines.

The same goes for any kind of calculation or data processing. Computers are of course good at the calculations needed for construction/engineering (that’s kind of what they were invented for), but even things like spreadsheets, basic scripting, or accounting software are orders of magnitude more efficient than doing the same things without a computer.

Local Networking

We’re used to networking always meaning “access to the entire internet”, but that’s not the only way to do networks – Our existing computers are perfectly capable of talking to each other on a local network at the level of a building or town, with no connection to a global internet.

There are lots of examples of potential use cases for local-only networking and communication, e.g. city-level mesh networks, or low-connectivity chat apps like Briar.

Reuse, Repair, Repurpose

Finally, there’s a ton of existing infrastructure and machinery that needs computers in order to be able to run, be repaired, or repurposed, including farm equipment, medical devices, public transit, and industrial tools.

I’m assuming – but this is conjecture on my part, it’s really not my area of expertise – the machines we’re currently using to build cars and planes could be repurposed to make something more useful, which can actually still be constructed with locally available resources in this future.

…Running Free Software?

As we’ve already touched on earlier, the centralized nature of proprietary software means it’s inherently less resilient than free software. If the company building it goes away or doesn’t sell you the software anymore, there’s not much you can do.

Given all the risks discussed earlier, it’s possible that free software will therefore have a larger role in a more localized future, because it can be adapted and repaired at the local level in ways that are impossible with proprietary software.

Assumptions to Reconsider?

However, while free software has structural advantages that make it more resilient than proprietary software, there are problematic aspects of current mainstream technology culture that affect us, too. Examples of assumptions that are pretty deeply ingrained in how most modern software (including free software) is built include:

• Fast internet is always available, offline/low-connectivity is a rare edge case, mostly relevant for travel
• New, better hardware is always around the corner and will replace the current hardware within a few years
• Using all the resources available (CPU, storage, power, bandwidth) is fine

Assumptions like these manifest in many subtle ways in how we work and what we build.

Dependencies and Package Managers

Over the past decade language-specific package managers such as npm and crates.io have taken off in an unprecedented way, leading to software with larger and more complex dependency graphs than ever before. This is the dominant paradigm for building software today, newer languages all come with their own built-in package manager.

However, just like physical supply chains, more complex dependency graphs are also less resilient. More dependencies, especially with pinned versions and lack of caching between projects means huge downloads and long build times when building software locally, resulting in lots of bandwidth, power, and disk space being used. Fully offline development is basically impossible, because every project you build needs to download its own specific version of every dependency.

It’s possible to imagine some kind of cross-project shared local dependency cache for this, but to my knowledge no language ecosystem is doing this by default at the moment.

Web-Based Tooling

Core parts of the software development workflow are increasingly moving to web-based tools, especially around code forges like Github or Gitlab. Issue management, merge requests, CI, releases, etc. all happen on these platforms, which are primarily or exclusively used via very, very, slow websites. It’s hard to overstate this: Code forges are among the slowest, shittiest websites out there, basically unusable unless you have a fast connection.

This is, of course, not resilient at all and a huge problem given that we rely on these tools for many of our key workflows.

Cloud Storage & Streaming

As already discussed relying on data centers is problematic on a number of levels, but in practice most people (even in the free software community), have embraced cloud services in some areas, at least at a personal level.

Instead of local photo, music, and movie collections many of us just use Google Photos, Spotify, and Netflix nowadays, which of course affects which kinds of apps are being built. For example, there are no modern, actively developed apps to manage your photo collection locally anymore, but we do have a nice, modern Spotify client…

Global Community Without the Internet?

Scariest of all, I think, is imagining free software development without the internet. This movement came into existence and grew alongside the global internet in the 80s and 90s, and it’s almost impossible to imagine what it could look like without it.

Maybe the movement as a whole, as well as individual projects would splinter into smaller, local versions in the regions that are still connected? But would there be a sufficient amount of expertise in each of those regions? Would development at any real scale just stop, and instead people would only do small repairs to what they have at the local level?

I don’t have any smart answers here, but I believe it’s something we really ought to think about.

This was part two of a four-part series. In part 3 we’ll look at concrete ideas and examples of things we can work towards to make our software more resilient.

This is a lightly edited version of my GUADEC 2022 talk, given at c-base in Berlin on July 21, 2022. Trigger Warning: Very depressing facts about climate and societal collapse.

In this community I’m primarily known for my work as a designer, but if you know me a bit better you’re aware that I also do a different kind of activism, which sometimes looks like this:

This was an Extinction Rebellion action in Berlin earlier this year, the week the new IPCC report was released. Among other things, the report says that keeping global warming to within 1.5 degrees, the goal all our governments agreed to, is basically impossible at this point.

The idea with this action in particular was to force the state to symbolically destroy the 1.5 degree goal in order to clear our street blockade. Here’s the police doing that:

It’s Happening Now

The climate crisis is no longer a thing future generations will one day have to deal with, like we were told as kids. It’s here, affecting all of us today, including in the global north. Some of the people travelling to this year’s Berlin Mini GUADEC were delayed by the massive heatwave, because train tracks on the way could not handle the heat.

There are already a number of unavoidable horrible consequences on the horizon. These include areas around the equator where the combination of temperature and humidity is deadly for humans for parts of the year, crop failures causing ever larger famines, conflicts around resources such as water, and general infrastructure breakdown caused by a combination of ever more extreme weather events and decreasing capacity to deal with them.

Second-order consequences will include billions of people having to flee to less affected areas, which in turn will have almost unimaginable political consequences – If 5 million refugees from the Syrian civil war caused a Europe-wide resurgence in proto-fascist parties, what will 100 million or more do?

And that’s not the worst of it.

Tipping Over

The climate system is not linear. There are a number of tipping elements which can, once destabilized, not be brought back to their previous state and go from being carbon sinks to actually releasing carbon into the atmosphere.

These include forests such as the Amazon, polar ice shields such as in Greenland, and perhaps most ominously, the gigantic amounts of methane frozen in the Russian permafrost. If some or all of these elements tip, they can kick off a self-reinforcing feedback loop of ever-accelerating warming, independent of human emissions.

We don’t know which tipping points are reached at what temperature exactly, but past 2 degrees it’s very likely that we’ll cross enough of them to cause 4, 5, or more degrees of warming.

We Have 3 Years

While many terrible things can’t be avoided anymore, scientists tell us that we still have a “brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity” to avoid some of the worst consequences – If we manage to turn things around and start actually reducing emissions in the next few years, and then continue doing so over the following decades.

That doesn’t mean each of us individually deciding to buy organic food and bamboo toothbrushes – The individual carbon footprint was literally invented by BP to deflect responsibility from corporations onto people. It’s obviously important to reduce our emissions as much as possible individually (especially luxury emissions such as meat and air travel), but that should not be where we stop or invest most of our energy.

No amount of individual action can really move the needle when just 100 companies are responsible for 70% of global emissions. All the real solutions are structural.

Unfortunately, on that front we’ve seen zero actual progress over the 40+ years that we’ve known about the impending catastrophe. Emissions have continuously increased in the past decades, rather than decreased. We’ve emitted more since the release of the first IPCC report in 1992 than in the entire history of humanity before that point. Even now, our governments are still subsidizing new fossil infrastructure with public money, while failing to meet the (already insufficient) goals they set for themselves.

It’s not too Late – Yet

This political and economic system is clearly not capable of the kind of action needed to avert this crisis. However, we’re also not going to be able to build an entirely new system in the next few years, there’s just not enough time. We can either try to use the existing state regulatory apparatus to reduce emissions now, or accept collapse as inevitable.

That sounds incredibly bleak, and it is – but there really is still a path to turn this around, and there are people and movements with a plan. Depending on where you live they have different names, logos, and tactics, but the strategy is roughly the same:

1. Mass Mobilization: Organize a small part of the population (something like a single digit percentage) into a mass civil resistance movement, and generate awareness of the emergency in the broader population.
2. Civil Resistance: Use civil disobedience tactics to disrupt business, politics, and infrastructure and do enough economic damage that the government can’t ignore it.
3. Citizens’ Assemblies: Demand that the government give the power to decide how to respond to the climate crisis to Citizens’ Assemblies. Members of these assemblies are chosen at random, in a way that is representative of the population, and advised by scientific experts. The assemblies can then decide how to reduce emissions and mitigate the effects of the crisis in a way that is both effective and socially equitable, because they are not beholden to capital interests.

This is of course an incredibly simplified version of the strategy (and I’d recommend reading up on it in detail), but it’s basically what groups such as Exctinction Rebellion (international), Just Stop Oil (UK), Letzte Generation (DE), Dernière Rénovation (FR), and many others are working towards.

So in the face of this, should we all just drop everything and start doing blockades for the next few years?

Well, yes. If you’re not currently doing civil disobedience wherever you live, I’d recommend looking into what groups exist locally and joining them. Even if you’re not ready to glue yourself to the road, there’s plenty of stuff you can do to help. They need your support to succeed, and we all really need them to succeed.

If you’re based in or near Germany, there’s actually a great opportunity coming up for getting involved: There’s a big rebellion wave September 17-20, so now’s an ideal time to get in touch with a local group nearby, do an action training, and book the trip to Berlin! See you there ;)

This is the first part of a four-part series. In part 2 we’ll explore what happens if we don’t manage to force our governments to enact radical change in the next few years, and what that would mean concretely for free software.